Royal Charleroi SC at KVC Westerlo
FT
5–1
At lock: projected CHA 1.79–1.48 KVCW
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3945840263
- Winner: Royal Charleroi (45%)
- Spread: KVCW +0.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CHA 1.79–1.48 KVCW · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KVCW att +0.12 / def -0.34 · CHA att +0.04 / def +0.10 · model KVCW 1.8–2.0 CHA
- Home field+0.3 goals to KVCW
- RecordKVCW 4-2-5 · CHA 9-0-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CHA +140 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| KVCW | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 58'
Aurelien Scheidler (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 58'
- GOAL2H 60'
Freddy Mbemba (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 60'
- GOAL2H 65'
Patrick Pflücke (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 65'
- GOAL2H 72'
Aurelien Scheidler (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 72'
- GOAL2H 74'
Norman Bassette (KVC Westerlo) Goal at 74'
- RUN2H 89'
Adama Bojang (Royal Charleroi SC) Penalty - Scored at 89'
Game leaders
- Patrick Pflücketotalshots 5
- Noah SolheidPass 59
- Aiham Ousoudefensiveinterventions 5
- Mohamed KonéSV 2
- Norman Bassettetotalshots 4
- Seiji KimuraPass 87
- Ibrahima Fofanadefensiveinterventions 7
- Andreas JungdalSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CHA | KVCW | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 1 |
| Saves | 2 | 5 |
| Possession | 46.1 | 53.9 |
| SHOTS | 21 | 10 |
| ON GOAL | 10 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 368 | 442 |
| Passes | 422 | 501 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 12 |
| Tackles | 14 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 14 | 24 |
At lock CHA 1.79–1.48 KVCW · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissP. Pflücke · CHA
ForwardN. Solheid · CHA
DefenderA. Ousou · CHA
DefenderM. Koné · CHA
GoalkeeperN. Bassette · KVCW
ForwardS. Kimura · KVCW
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Royal Charleroi vs Westerlo pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day