KV Kortrijk at KAA Gent
FT
0–1
At lock: projected KVK 0.72–1.98 GENT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3979395501
- Winner: KAA Gent (66%)
- Spread: KVK +1.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
KVK 0.72–1.98 GENT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GENT att -0.06 / def +0.16 · KVK att -0.50 / def -0.26 · model GENT 2.1–0.7 KVK
- Home field+0.3 goals to GENT
- RecordGENT 9-1-1 · KVK 1-1-9
- Market priorBlended 80% toward GENT -180 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVK | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GENT | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 32'
Abdelkahar Kadri (KAA Gent) Goal at 32'
Game leaders
- Goduine Koyalipoutotalshots 5
- James Willy NdjeungouePass 73
- James Willy Ndjeungouedefensiveinterventions 8
- Marko IlicSV 3
- Josué Yamir Vergara Ortegatotalshots 4
- Siebe van der HeydenPass 66
- Siebe van der Heydendefensiveinterventions 10
- Davy RoefSV 7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KVK | GENT | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 22 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 4 |
| Saves | 3 | 7 |
| Possession | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 12 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 370 | 401 |
| Passes | 454 | 490 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 11 |
| Tackles | 22 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 18 | 28 |
At lock KVK 0.72–1.98 GENT · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp M. Dean anytime goal · GENT
M. Dean anytime goalG. Koyalipou · KVK
ForwardJ. Ndjeungoue · KVK
DefenderM. Ilic · KVK
ForwardJ. Vergara Ortega · GENT
ForwardS. van der Heyden · GENT
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · M. Dean anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
KV Kortrijk vs KAA Gent pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day