Zulte-Waregem at Sint-Truidense
FT
1–4
At lock: projected ZUL 1.19–1.64 STVV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3962617882
- Winner: Sint-Truidense (48%)
- Spread: ZUL +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ZUL 1.19–1.64 STVV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STVV att +0.09 / def -0.06 · ZUL att -0.07 / def -0.22 · model STVV 2.4–1.4 ZUL
- Home field+0.3 goals to STVV
- RecordSTVV 3-2-6 · ZUL 3-2-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward STVV -160 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZUL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| STVV | 2 | 2 | 4 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 7'
Shion Shinkawa (Sint-Truidense) Goal at 7'
- GOAL1H 12'
Nelson Ishiwatari (Sint-Truidense) Goal at 12'
- GOAL1H 14'
István Átrok (Zulte-Waregem) Goal at 14'
- RUN2H 64'
Ilias Sebaoui (Sint-Truidense) Penalty - Scored at 64'
- GOAL2H 66'
Kaito Matsuzawa (Sint-Truidense) Goal at 66'
Game leaders
- Anosike Ementatotalshots 3
- Enrique LofolomoPass 35
- Benoit De Jaegeredefensiveinterventions 11
- Brent GabrielSV 5
- Ilias Sebaouitotalshots 3
- Shogo TaniguchiPass 97
- Visar Musliudefensiveinterventions 8
- Leo Brian KokuboSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ZUL | STVV | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 5 |
| Saves | 5 | 1 |
| Possession | 32 | 68 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 9 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 227 | 565 |
| Passes | 298 | 644 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 23 | 9 |
| Tackles | 32 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 32 | 16 |
At lock ZUL 1.19–1.64 STVV · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Bazdar anytime goal · STVV
S. Bazdar anytime goalA. Ementa · ZUL
ForwardE. Lofolomo · ZUL
MidfielderB. De Jaegere · ZUL
DefenderB. Gabriel · ZUL
GoalkeeperI. Sebaoui · STVV
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · S. Bazdar anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Zulte-Waregem vs Sint-Truidense pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day