Racing Genk at Union St.-Gilloise
FT
0–1
At lock: projected GENK 1.23–1.67 USG
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3878729787
- Winner: Union SG (48%)
- Spread: GENK +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GENK 1.23–1.67 USG · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): USG att +0.29 / def +0.61 · GENK att +0.02 / def +0.12 · model USG 2.0–0.8 GENK
- Home field+0.3 goals to USG
- RecordUSG 9-2-0 · GENK 4-3-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward USG -180 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GENK | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USG | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 76'
Ross Sykes (Union St.-Gilloise) Goal at 76'
Game leaders
- Daan Heymanstotalshots 5
- Matte SmetsPass 59
- Matte Smetsdefensiveinterventions 8
- Lucca Kiaba MoungangaSV 3
- Kevin Rodrígueztotalshots 4
- Adem ZorganePass 70
- Ross Sykesdefensiveinterventions 9
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GENK | USG | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 10 |
| Saves | 3 | 0 |
| Possession | 46 | 54 |
| SHOTS | 10 | 23 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 369 | 452 |
| Passes | 455 | 538 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 9 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 9 |
| Tackles | 19 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 31 | 27 |
At lock GENK 1.23–1.67 USG · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Mofokeng anytime goal · USG
R. Mofokeng anytime goalD. Heymans · GENK
MidfielderM. Smets · GENK
DefenderL. Kiaba Mounganga · GENK
GoalkeeperK. Rodríguez · USG
DefenderA. Zorgane · USG
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · R. Mofokeng anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Genk vs Union SG pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day