WNBASat 12:00 PM CTState Farm Arena

Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream

TV · NBC

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 153.5

62%

At lock GS 76.81–80.47 ATL · 3.8 pts over 153.5

Players

G. Williams · GS
Forwards
K. Stokes · GS
Forwards
V. Burton · GS
Goalkeeper
A. Gray · ATL
Goalkeeper
A. Reese · ATL
Forwards
J. Canada · ATL
Goalkeeper

Data-Driven Pick · K. Stokes Over 3.5 pts

-114

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

76.81

Projected

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

80.47

GS 37%ATL 63%

At lock: projected GS 76.81–80.47 ATL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

GS 76.81–80.47 ATL · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ATL +5.6 vs GS +5.8 · pred margin +3.5
Attack / defense
ATL +10.4 off · GS +3.0 off, shrunk 85%
Home field
+2.2 pts to ATL
Record
ATL 30-14 · GS 32-12
Market prior
Blended 59% toward ATL -4.5 / total 153.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabby Williams
PTS 14.4
Kiah Stokes
REB 5.8
Veronica Burton
AST 5.7
Veronica Burton
rating 12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Allisha Gray
PTS 19.0
Angel Reese
REB 12.1
Jordin Canada
AST 7.3
Angel Reese
rating 16.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GS	ATL
STRK	L2	W2
OPP PPG	77.8	77.4
Last Ten	6-3	7-1
PTS	82.2	91.3
FG%	42	44
3P%	34	33
REB	33.3	35.6
AST	19.3	21.5
BLK	4.0	3.3
STL	7.8	9.1
TTO	13.9	10.1
ToTO	24.2	22.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

K. Stokes Over 3.5 pts

-11459%

Points · DraftKings

G. Williams Under 18.5 pts
Points · GS
-112
58%
A. Gray Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+119
57%
N. Hillmon Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+117
57%
V. Burton Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+109
57%
C. Zandalasini Over 7.5 pts
Points · GS
+102
56%
G. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+112
56%
R. Howard Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+123
56%
V. Burton Over 4.5 ast
Assists · GS
+116
55%
J. Canada Over 10.5 pts
Points · ATL
-115
55%
T. Hayes Over 2.5 ast
Assists · GS
+114
54%
A. Gray Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
-109
54%

Valkyries vs Dream prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 153.5, with a 62% model probability. The model projected Valkyries 76.8, Dream 80.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dream 63%, Valkyries 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: WNBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day