WNBAWed 7:00 PM CTState Farm Arena

Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream

TV · USA Net

Wed 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 151.5

63%

GS 76.35–79.25 ATL

Data-Driven Pick · K. Stokes Over 4.5 pts

-102

Golden State Valkyries

32-12 · W1

3615 PF · 3305 PA

76.35

Projected

Atlanta Dream

30-14 · W5

4019 PF · 3717 PA

79.25

GS 39%ATL 61%

Projected GS 76.35–79.25 ATL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

The model

How this number was built

GS 76.35–79.25 ATL · High confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ATL +5.6 vs GS +5.8 · pred margin +2.9
Attack / defense
ATL +10.4 off · GS +3.0 off, shrunk 85%
Home field
+2.2 pts to ATL
Record
ATL 30-14 · GS 32-12
Market prior
Blended 59% toward ATL -3.5 / total 151.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabby Williams
PTS 14.4
Kiah Stokes
REB 5.8
Veronica Burton
AST 5.7
Veronica Burton
rating 12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Allisha Gray
PTS 19.0
Angel Reese
REB 12.1
Jordin Canada
AST 7.3
Angel Reese
rating 16.4 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GS	ATL
STRK	L1	W1
OPP PPG	77.8	78.3
Last Ten	6-2	6-1
PTS	82.2	91.3
FG%	42	44
3P%	34	33
REB	33.3	35.6
AST	19.3	21.5
BLK	4.0	3.3
STL	7.8	9.1
TTO	13.9	10.1
ToTO	24.2	22.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

K. Stokes Over 4.5 pts

-10258%

Points · DraftKings

G. Williams Under 18.5 pts
Points · GS
-111
58%
A. Gray Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
+127
57%
J. Canada Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · ATL
-116
57%
V. Burton Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+120
57%
K. Stokes Over 1.5 ast
Assists · GS
+131
56%
G. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · GS
+123
56%
V. Burton Over 4.5 ast
Assists · GS
-103
55%
V. Burton Over 9.5 pts
Points · GS
-108
55%
A. Gray Over 16.5 pts
Points · ATL
-112
55%
A. Gray Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
+141
54%
A. Reese Over 2.5 ast
Assists · ATL
+138
54%

Valkyries vs Dream prediction · Oct 21, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 151.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projects Valkyries 76.3, Dream 79.3. Model win probability: Dream 61%, Valkyries 39%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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