RB Salzburg at Anderlecht
TV · Paramount+
SLZ 1.19–1.53 AND · 0.2 goals over 2.5
H. Tabakovic · SLZ
ForwardsM. Cvetkovic · AND
Forwards
Projected SLZ 1.19–1.53 AND · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
SLZ 1.19–1.53 AND · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): AND att +0.10 / def +0.27 · SLZ att +0.20 / def +0.17 · model AND 1.5–1.2 SLZ
- Home field+0.3 goals to AND
- RecordAND 2-2 · SLZ 1-2-1
Season leaders
- Haris Tabakovicgoals 1
- Haris Tabakovicgoalsleaders 1
- Mihajlo Cvetkovicgoals 1
- Mihajlo Cvetkovicgoalsleaders 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SLZ | AND | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | -2 |
| Total Goals | 1 | 1 |
| Assists | 0 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
RB Salzburg vs Anderlecht prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects RB Salzburg 1.2, Anderlecht 1.5. Model win probability: Anderlecht 44%, RB Salzburg 28%, draw 28%.
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