Ferencvaros at AC Milan
TV · Paramount+
FER 1.20–1.80 MIL · 0.5 goals over 2.5
K. Zachariassen · FER
MidfieldA. Cissè · MIL
Midfield
Projected FER 1.20–1.80 MIL · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
FER 1.20–1.80 MIL · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): MIL att +0.40 / def +0.43 · FER att +0.38 / def +0.31 · model MIL 1.8–1.2 FER
- Home field+0.3 goals to MIL
- RecordMIL 1-3 · FER 4-0
Season leaders
- Kristoffer Zachariassengoals 3
- Kristoffer Zachariassengoalsleaders 3
- Alphadjo Cissègoals 3
- Alphadjo Cissègoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FER | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 3 | 2 |
| Total Goals | 5 | 4 |
| Assists | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ferencvaros vs Milan prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects Ferencvaros 1.2, Milan 1.8. Model win probability: Milan 50%, Ferencvaros 24%, draw 25%.
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