TSG Hoffenheim at Crystal Palace
TV · Paramount+
TSG 1.05–3.00 CRY · 0.4 goals under 4.5
K. Machida · TSG
DefensesY. Pino · CRY
Midfield
Projected TSG 1.05–3.00 CRY · most likely 1–3
Model vs market
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
TSG 1.05–3.00 CRY · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): CRY att +0.53 / def +0.44 · TSG att +0.25 / def -0.07 · model CRY 3.0–1.0 TSG
- Home field+0.3 goals to CRY
- RecordCRY 1-2-1 · TSG 2-2
Season leaders
- Koki Machidagoals 1
- Koki Machidagoalsleaders 1
- Yéremy Pinogoals 2
- Yéremy Pinogoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TSG | CRY | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | 3 |
| Total Goals | 2 | 6 |
| Assists | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hoffenheim vs C Palace prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects Hoffenheim 1.1, C Palace 3.0. Model win probability: C Palace 74%, Hoffenheim 11%, draw 15%.
More: Europa picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day