Lech Poznan at Benfica
TV · Paramount+
LECH 1.17–3.64 SLB · 0.3 goals over 4.5
L. Palma · LECH
DefensesJ. Durán · SLB
Forwards
Projected LECH 1.17–3.64 SLB · most likely 1–3
Model vs market
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
LECH 1.17–3.64 SLB · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): SLB att +0.71 / def +0.53 · LECH att +0.44 / def -0.09 · model SLB 3.6–1.2 LECH
- Home field+0.3 goals to SLB
- RecordSLB 4-0 · LECH 0-2-2
Season leaders
- Luis Palmagoals 0
- Luis Palmagoalsleaders 0
Jhon Durángoals 2- Jhon Durángoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LECH | SLB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -8 | 5 |
| Total Goals | 0 | 6 |
| Assists | 0 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 1 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lech Poznan vs Benfica prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects Lech Poznan 1.2, Benfica 3.6. Model win probability: Benfica 77%, Lech Poznan 11%, draw 12%.
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