NK Celje at SK Sturm Graz
TV · Paramount+
NKC 1.03–1.79 STG · 0.3 goals over 2.5
S. Seslar · NKC
MidfieldJ. Heil · STG
Midfield
Projected NKC 1.03–1.79 STG · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 304 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2335 vs closing line 0.2008. Added Oct 2026: team goal ratings from all domestic leagues plus a cross-league strength offset fitted on European/cup results (ESPN). v1 = home/draw/away base rates. The model alone trails the closing DraftKings line (0.2008), so the published projection is 85% market: 1X2 RPS 0.2004 vs market 0.2008, O/U Brier 0.2428 vs 0.2429.
The model
How this number was built
NKC 1.03–1.79 STG · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (domestic form + cross-league strength): STG att -0.04 / def +0.28 · NKC att +0.06 / def -0.13 · model STG 1.8–1.0 NKC
- Home field+0.3 goals to STG
- RecordSTG 2-1-1 · NKC 0-2-2
Season leaders
- Svit Seslargoals 0
- Svit Seslargoalsleaders 0
- Jürgen Heilgoals 0
- Jürgen Heilgoalsleaders 0
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NKC | STG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -5 | -3 |
| Total Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Assists | 0 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
NK Celje vs Sturm Graz prediction · Nov 5, 2026
The model projects NK Celje 1.0, Sturm Graz 1.8. Model win probability: Sturm Graz 54%, NK Celje 20%, draw 25%.
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