Champions LeagueWed 11:45 AM CTOPAP Arena
Real Madrid at AEK Athens
TV · Paramount+
Wed 11:45 AM CT
Computer
Under 4.5
41%
RMA 2.61–1.50 AEK · 0.4 goals under 4.5
Players
K. Mbappé · RMA
ForwardsS. Pilios · AEK
Defenses
Real Madrid
4-0 · W1 · computer pick
Form DWWWL · 14 PF · 6 PA
2.61
Projected
AEK Athens
1-0-2
Form DLWWD · 3 PF · 8 PA
1.50
RMA 60%Draw 18%AEK 22%
Projected RMA 2.61–1.50 AEK · most likely 2–1
The model
How this number was built
RMA 2.61–1.50 AEK · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseAEK -0.2 off · RMA +0.9 off, shrunk 33%
- Home field+0.3 goals to AEK
- RecordAEK 1-0-2 · RMA 4-0
Season leaders
- Kylian Mbappégoals 2
- Kylian Mbappégoalsleaders 2
- Stavros Piliosgoals 1
- Stavros Piliosgoalsleaders 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RMA | AEK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 2 | -5 |
| Total Goals | 6 | 3 |
| Assists | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Real Madrid vs AEK Athens prediction · Nov 4, 2026
The model projects Real Madrid 2.6, AEK Athens 1.5. Model win probability: AEK Athens 22%, Real Madrid 60%, draw 18%.
More: Champions League picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day