Serie AMon 1:45 PM CTEnnio Tardini

Torino at Parma

TV · Paramount+

Mon 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

60%

TOR 1.11–1.16 PAR

Torino

2-1-3

Form DDLWL · 7 PF · 9 PA

1.11

Projected

Parma

1-1-4

Form DWLDL · 4 PF · 10 PA

1.16

TOR 33%Draw 31%PAR 36%

Projected TOR 1.11–1.16 PAR · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PAR win

51%

43% (no-vig)

Total

2.28

2.5

Gap: +8 pts of win %, -0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

TOR 1.11–1.16 PAR · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PAR att -0.36 / def -0.08 · TOR att -0.18 / def -0.16 · model PAR 1.2–1.1 TOR
Home field
+0.3 goals to PAR
Record
PAR 1-1-4 · TOR 2-1-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ché Adams
goals 2
Ché Adams
goalsleaders 2

José Romero
goals 2
José Romero
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOR	PAR
Goal Difference	-2	-6
Total Goals	7	4
Assists	5	3
Goals Against	9	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Simeone anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+245
29%
S. Kulenovic anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+270
27%
G. Oristanio anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+295
25%
E. Toure anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+330
23%
M. Frigan anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+330
23%
N. Vlasic anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+370
21%
R. Mandragora anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+450
18%
Z. Aboukhlal anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+450
18%
G. Fabbian anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+550
15%
C. Casadei anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+550
15%
B. Cremaschi anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+600
14%
G. Gineitis anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOR
+750
12%

Torino vs Parma prediction · Oct 19, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projects Torino 1.1, Parma 1.2. Model win probability: Parma 36%, Torino 33%, draw 31%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day