Serie AMon 11:30 AM CTU-Power Stadium

Cagliari at Monza

TV · Paramount+

Mon 11:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

53%

CAG 1.46–1.10 MON

Cagliari

4-1-1

Form DWWWL · 6 PF · 3 PA

1.46

Projected

Monza

1-1-4

Form LWLDW · 9 PF · 15 PA

1.10

CAG 44%Draw 29%MON 27%

Projected CAG 1.46–1.10 MON · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MON win

41%

54% (no-vig)

Total

2.56

2.5

Gap: -13 pts of win %, +0.06 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CAG 1.46–1.10 MON · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MON att -0.33 / def -0.37 · CAG att -0.21 / def -0.07 · model MON 1.1–1.5 CAG
Home field
+0.3 goals to MON
Record
MON 1-1-4 · CAG 4-1-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Daniel Maldini
goals 4
Daniel Maldini
goalsleaders 4

Gustavo Varela
goals 4
Gustavo Varela
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAG	MON
Goal Difference	3	-6
Total Goals	6	9
Assists	4	7
Goals Against	3	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Mota anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+260
28%
D. Maldini anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAG
+275
27%
M. Nzola anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAG
+320
24%
P. Mendy anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAG
+320
24%
C. Ngonge anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+340
23%
O. Forson anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+340
23%
Y. Trepy anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAG
+380
21%
J. Fazzini anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAG
+450
18%
M. Mout anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+450
18%
J. Robinson anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+475
17%
P. Ciurria anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+500
17%
M. Folorunsho anytime goal
Anytime goal · MON
+500
17%

Cagliari vs Monza prediction · Oct 19, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Cagliari 1.5, Monza 1.1. Model win probability: Monza 27%, Cagliari 44%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day