ScotlandWed 2:45 PM CTMcDiarmid Park

Motherwell at St Johnstone

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock MOT 1.40–1.02 STJ · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Lowry · MOT
Midfielder
J. Fowler · STJ
Forward

Motherwell

2-2-6

Form DLLLL · 11 PF · 18 PA

1.40

Projected

St Johnstone

3-3-4

Form DDWDL · 11 PF · 15 PA

1.02

MOT 44%Draw 29%STJ 26%

At lock: projected MOT 1.40–1.02 STJ · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

STJ win

41%

52% (no-vig)

Total

2.42

2.5

Gap: -11 pts of win %, -0.08 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

MOT 1.40–1.02 STJ · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STJ att -0.49 / def -0.15 · MOT att -0.13 / def +0.06 · model STJ 1.0–1.4 MOT
Home field
+0.3 goals to STJ
Record
STJ 3-3-4 · MOT 2-2-6

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alexander Lowry
goals 3
Alexander Lowry
goalsleaders 3

Josh Fowler
goals 6
Josh Fowler
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MOT	STJ
Goal Difference	-7	-4
Total Goals	11	11
Assists	6	6
Goals Against	18	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Williams anytime goal
Anytime goal · MOT
+1700
6%
J. Knight-Lebel anytime goal
Anytime goal · MOT
+2000
6%

Motherwell vs St Johnstone prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Motherwell 1.4, St Johnstone 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: St Johnstone 26%, Motherwell 44%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day