Saudi ProSat 9:00 AM CTKing Khalid Sport City Stadium

Abha at Neom SC

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock ABH 0.62–2.00 NEOM · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Gory · ABH
Forward
A. Lacazette · NEOM
Forward

Abha

0-2-6

Form DDLLL · 6 PF · 15 PA

0.62

Projected

Neom SC

5-1-4

Form DLDWW · 14 PF · 9 PA

2.00

ABH 10%Draw 21%NEOM 69%

At lock: projected ABH 0.62–2.00 NEOM · most likely 0–2 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 0–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NEOM win

74%

79% (no-vig)

Total

2.87

2.5

Gap: -4 pts of win %, +0.37 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ABH 0.62–2.00 NEOM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NEOM att -0.15 / def +0.10 · ABH att -0.38 / def -0.42 · model NEOM 2.0–0.9 ABH
Home field
+0.3 goals to NEOM
Record
NEOM 5-1-4 · ABH 0-2-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NEOM -185 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alimani Gory
goals 2
Alimani Gory
goalsleaders 2

Alexandre Lacazette
goals 5
Alexandre Lacazette
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ABH	NEOM
Goal Difference	-9	5
Total Goals	6	14
Assists	2	11
Goals Against	15	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Batshuayi anytime goal
Anytime goal · ABH
+280
26%
M. Abu Taha anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEOM
+350
22%
A. Gory anytime goal
Anytime goal · ABH
+500
17%
M. Sarr anytime goal
Anytime goal · NEOM
+2200
6%
J. Gaari anytime goal
Anytime goal · ABH
+3500
6%

Abha vs Neom SC prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Abha 0.6, Neom SC 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Neom SC 69%, Abha 10%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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