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Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers

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Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock DET 2.58–3.88 EDM · 0.04 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. DeBrincat · DET
Right wing
L. Draisaitl · EDM
Center
C. McDavid · EDM
Center

Data-Driven Pick · C. McDavid anytime goal

+100

Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3 · L1

29 PF · 34 PA

2.58

Projected

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-1 · L1

49 PF · 39 PA

3.88

DET 32%EDM 68%

At lock: projected DET 2.58–3.88 EDM · most likely 2–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

EDM win

58%

62% (no-vig)

Total

6.28

6.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DET vs EDM

The model

How this number was built

DET 2.58–3.88 EDM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.32 vs -0.30 · adj. shots -2.1 vs -2.0 · model EDM 3.4–2.9 DET
Home field
+0.2 goals to EDM
Record
EDM 8-2-1 · DET 4-4-3
Market prior
Blended 79% toward EDM -180 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

L. Draisaitl Over 1.5 pts

+10557%

Points · DraftKings

Z. Hyman Over 0.5 pts
Points · EDM
-120
58%
K. Kapanen Over 0.5 pts
Points · EDM
+150
58%
V. Arvidsson Over 0.5 pts
Points · DET
-120
58%
R. Shea Over 0.5 pts
Points · EDM
+170
58%
V. Podkolzin Over 0.5 pts
Points · EDM
-105
58%
E. Finnie Over 0.5 pts
Points · DET
+125
58%
Z. Hyman Over 0.5 ast
Assists · EDM
+225
58%
R. Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 ast
Assists · EDM
+120
58%
D. Larkin Over 0.5 ast
Assists · DET
+150
58%
K. Kapanen Over 0.5 ast
Assists · EDM
+280
58%
V. Arvidsson Over 0.5 ast
Assists · DET
+170
58%

Red Wings vs Oilers prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Red Wings 2.6, Oilers 3.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Oilers 68%, Red Wings 32%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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