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Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

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Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock TOR 3.86–2.63 CGY · 0.01 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Matthews · TOR
Center
M. Frost · CGY
Center
J. Farabee · CGY
Left wing

Data-Driven Pick · W. Nylander Over 1.5 pts

+170

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2 · W4

50 PF · 41 PA

3.86

Projected

Calgary Flames

4-6-0 · W3

23 PF · 39 PA

2.63

TOR 68%CGY 32%

At lock: projected TOR 3.86–2.63 CGY · most likely 3–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CGY win

47%

41% (no-vig)

Total

6.43

6.5

Gap: +6 pts of win %, -0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TOR vs CGY

The model

How this number was built

TOR 3.86–2.63 CGY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.59 vs -0.02 · adj. shots +1.1 vs -0.6 · model CGY 3.1–3.3 TOR
Home field
+0.2 goals to CGY
Record
CGY 4-6-0 · TOR 7-4-2
Market prior
Blended 80% toward TOR -162 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

W. Nylander Over 1.5 pts

+17057%

Points · DraftKings

J. Farabee Over 0.5 ast
Assists · CGY
+135
68%
R. Strome Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+140
58%
M. Rielly Over 0.5 pts
Points · TOR
+140
58%
N. Paul Over 0.5 pts
Points · TOR
+140
58%
J. Roslovic Over 0.5 pts
Points · TOR
-105
58%
K. Bahl Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+150
58%
Y. Sharangovich Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+115
58%
S. Nemec Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+150
58%
E. Cowan Over 0.5 pts
Points · TOR
+100
58%
Z. Parekh Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+110
58%
M. Gridin Over 0.5 pts
Points · CGY
+100
58%

Maple Leafs vs Flames prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Maple Leafs 3.9, Flames 2.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Flames 32%, Maple Leafs 68%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day