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Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth

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Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock TB 2.60–3.87 UTA · 0.03 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Hagel · TB
Left wing
N. Kucherov · TB
Right wing
N. Schmaltz · UTA
Center
C. Keller · UTA
Right wing

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-4 · L2

37 PF · 35 PA

2.60

Projected

Utah Mammoth

7-4-0 · L1

41 PF · 36 PA

3.87

TB 32%UTA 68%

At lock: projected TB 2.60–3.87 UTA · most likely 2–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

UTA win

56%

56% (no-vig)

Total

6.38

6.5

Gap: +0 pts of win %, -0.12 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TB vs UTA

The model

How this number was built

TB 2.60–3.87 UTA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.19 vs +0.46 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -3.0 · model UTA 3.4–3.0 TB
Home field
+0.2 goals to UTA
Record
UTA 7-4-0 · TB 7-4
Market prior
Blended 79% toward UTAH -142 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Guenther anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+155
39%
N. Kucherov anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+165
38%
C. Keller anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+175
36%
N. Schmaltz anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+180
36%
B. Hagel anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+180
36%
J. Guentzel anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+185
35%
L. Cooley anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+230
30%
B. Point anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+235
30%
A. Cirelli anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+310
24%
A. Lee anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+320
24%
V. Trocheck anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+330
23%
L. Crouse anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTA
+360
22%

Lightning vs Mammoth prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Lightning 2.6, Mammoth 3.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Mammoth 68%, Lightning 32%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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