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Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

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Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock BUF 2.62–3.83 WSH · 0.05 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Quinn · BUF
Right wing
O. Power · BUF
Defenseman
A. Tuch · WSH
Right wing
D. Strome · WSH
Center
R. Leonard · WSH
Right wing

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-2 · L2

28 PF · 37 PA

2.62

Projected

Washington Capitals

5-4-0 · L1

30 PF · 29 PA

3.83

BUF 33%WSH 67%

At lock: projected BUF 2.62–3.83 WSH · most likely 2–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

WSH win

51%

53% (no-vig)

Total

6.29

6.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, -0.21 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BUF vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

BUF 2.62–3.83 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.17 vs +0.14 · adj. shots -2.2 vs -1.4 · model WSH 3.2–3.1 BUF
Home field
+0.2 goals to WSH
Record
WSH 5-4-0 · BUF 4-4-2
Market prior
Blended 80% toward WSH -125 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

T. Thompson anytime goal
Anytime goal · BUF
+155
39%
J. Quinn anytime goal
Anytime goal · BUF
+215
32%
T. Wilson anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+220
31%
A. Tuch anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+220
31%
A. Ovechkin anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+235
30%
D. Strome anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+270
27%
Z. Benson anytime goal
Anytime goal · BUF
+280
26%
R. Leonard anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+285
26%
J. Kyrou anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+290
26%
P. Dubois anytime goal
Anytime goal · WSH
+300
25%
J. Doan anytime goal
Anytime goal · BUF
+300
25%
R. Dahlin anytime goal
Anytime goal · BUF
+330
23%

Sabres vs Capitals prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Sabres 2.6, Capitals 3.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Capitals 67%, Sabres 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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