NHLTue 9:30 PM CTT-Mobile Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights

TV · ESPN

Tue 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

54%

TB 2.59–3.85 VGK

Tampa Bay Lightning

6-2-0 · W2

25 PF · 21 PA

2.59

Projected

Vegas Golden Knights

8-2-0 · W3

42 PF · 24 PA

3.85

TB 25%Draw 15%VGK 61%

Projected TB 2.59–3.85 VGK · most likely 2–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

VGK win

54%

51% (no-vig)

Total

6.17

6.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, -0.33 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TB vs VGK

The model

How this number was built

TB 2.59–3.85 VGK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.53 vs +0.33 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -3.0 · model VGK 3.2–2.9 TB
Home field
+0.2 goals to VGK
Record
VGK 8-2-0 · TB 6-2-0
Market prior
Blended 80% toward VGK -115 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

N. Kucherov anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+160
38%
B. Hagel anytime goal
Anytime goal · TB
+160
38%
M. Stone anytime goal
Anytime goal · VGK
+180
36%
J. Eichel anytime goal
Anytime goal · VGK
+180
36%

Lightning vs Golden Knights prediction · Oct 20, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Lightning 2.6, Golden Knights 3.9. Model win probability: Golden Knights 61%, Lightning 25%, draw 15%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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