San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV · ESPN+
SJ 2.59–3.89 TOR
Projected SJ 2.59–3.89 TOR · most likely 2–3
Model vs market
Gap: +1 pts of win %, -0.10 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SJ vs TOR
The model
How this number was built
SJ 2.59–3.89 TOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.42 vs -0.57 · adj. shots -2.0 vs -0.1 · model TOR 3.4–3.0 SJ
- Home field+0.2 goals to TOR
- RecordTOR 3-4-2 · SJ 4-3-1
- Market priorBlended 80% toward TOR -142 / total 6.5
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- A. Matthews anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+11547%
- M. Celebrini anytime goalAnytime goal · SJ+11547%
Sharks vs Maple Leafs prediction · Oct 19, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Sharks 2.6, Maple Leafs 3.9. Model win probability: Maple Leafs 61%, Sharks 24%, draw 14%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day