NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTHancock Whitney Stadium

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Alabama Jaguars

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 56.5

52%

At lock LT 31.40–25.88 USA · 0.8 pts over 56.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Baker · LT
QB
A. Burnette · LT
RB
J. Mickens · LT
WR
J. Hollins · USA
QB
K. Phillips · USA
RB
B. Jenkins · USA
WR

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

5-2 · W4

226 PF · 147 PA

31.40

Projected

South Alabama Jaguars

4-3 · L1

246 PF · 227 PA

25.88

LT 62%USA 38%

At lock: projected LT 31.40–25.88 USA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LT -4.1

LT -5.5

Total

57.2

56.5

Gap: +1.4 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LT vs USA

The model

How this number was built

LT 31.40–25.88 USA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
USA -8.8 vs LT -2.3 · pred margin -5.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.9 vs +4.8 · model USA 26.7–32.2 LT
Home field
+3.0 pts to USA
Record
USA 4-3 · LT 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LT -5.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Blake Baker
Pass 96/133, 1160 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT
Andrew Burnette
Rush 85 CAR, 349 YDS, 1 TD
Jalen Mickens
Rec 40 REC, 586 YDS, 3 TD

Jared Hollins
Pass 68/125, 1003 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Keenan Phillips
Rush 96 CAR, 514 YDS, 5 TD
Brendan Jenkins
Rec 25 REC, 430 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LT	USA
Points Per Game	32.3	35.1
Total Yards	399.3	421.9
Yards Passing	248.7	207.6
Yards Rushing	150.6	214.3
Points Allowed Per Game	21.0	32.4
Yards Allowed	323.4	414.6
Pass Yards Allowed	198.0	252.9
Rush Yards Allowed	125.4	161.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 56.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Louisiana Tech 31.4, South Alabama 25.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: South Alabama 38%, Louisiana Tech 62%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day