NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTS.B. Ballard Stadium

Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ODU +3

54%

At lock MRSH 23.67–22.19 ODU · MRSH by 1.5 pts vs ODU +3 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Del Rio-Wilson · MRSH
QB
J. Price · MRSH
RB
X. Turner-Bradshaw · MRSH
WR
Q. Henicle · ODU
QB
D. Roche · ODU
RB
T. Johnson · ODU
WR

Marshall Thundering Herd

4-3 · W1

152 PF · 215 PA

23.67

Projected

Old Dominion Monarchs

2-6 · L2 · computer pick

124 PF · 214 PA

22.19

MRSH 52%ODU 48%

At lock: projected MRSH 23.67–22.19 ODU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ODU -3.3

MRSH -3.0

Total

46.1

45.5

Gap: +6.3 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MRSH vs ODU

The model

How this number was built

MRSH 23.67–22.19 ODU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ODU -15.3 vs MRSH -15.0 · pred margin -0.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.5 vs -2.5 · model ODU 26.2–21.2 MRSH
Home field
+3.0 pts to ODU
Record
ODU 2-6 · MRSH 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MRSH -3 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
Pass 90/140, 1041 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Judah Price
Rush 41 CAR, 237 YDS, 2 TD
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
Rec 25 REC, 335 YDS, 4 TD

Quinn Henicle
Pass 54/98, 656 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Devin Roche
Rush 103 CAR, 382 YDS
TJ Johnson
Rec 17 REC, 265 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MRSH	ODU
Points Per Game	21.7	15.5
Total Yards	395.3	251.1
Yards Passing	238.3	152.8
Yards Rushing	157.0	98.4
Points Allowed Per Game	30.7	26.8
Yards Allowed	430.0	348.6
Pass Yards Allowed	238.4	211.4
Rush Yards Allowed	191.6	137.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Marshall vs Old Dominion prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ODU +3, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Marshall 23.7, Old Dominion 22.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Old Dominion 48%, Marshall 52%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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