NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTMalone Stadium

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USM -3

54%

At lock USM 29.46–24.72 ULM · USM by 4.7 pts vs USM -3 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

L. Lyddy · USM
QB
S. Robinson · USM
RB
M. Sanders · USM
WR
A. Armenta · ULM
QB
A. Carlisle · ULM
QB
M. Jackson · ULM
WR

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

2-5 · W1 · computer pick

180 PF · 227 PA

29.46

Projected

UL Monroe Warhawks

1-6 · W1

141 PF · 261 PA

24.72

USM 62%ULM 38%

At lock: projected USM 29.46–24.72 ULM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

USM -8.6

USM -3.0

Total

54.1

53.5

Gap: -5.6 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USM vs ULM

The model

How this number was built

USM 29.46–24.72 ULM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ULM -25.3 vs USM -13.6 · pred margin -4.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.3 vs -1.9 · model ULM 23.6–31.9 USM
Home field
+3.0 pts to ULM
Record
ULM 1-6 · USM 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward USM -3 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Landry Lyddy
Pass 101/170, 1196 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Steven Robinson
Rush 121 CAR, 577 YDS, 8 TD
Mario Sanders
Rec 40 REC, 569 YDS, 5 TD

Aidan Armenta
Pass 96/153, 1121 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Austin Carlisle
Rush 44 CAR, 237 YDS, 1 TD
Marcellus Jackson
Rec 32 REC, 265 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USM	ULM
Points Per Game	25.7	20.1
Total Yards	402.4	328.3
Yards Passing	247.0	211.6
Yards Rushing	155.4	116.7
Points Allowed Per Game	32.4	37.3
Yards Allowed	442.9	442.7
Pass Yards Allowed	210.0	224.0
Rush Yards Allowed	232.9	218.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Southern Miss vs UL Monroe prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USM -3, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Southern Miss 29.5, UL Monroe 24.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: UL Monroe 38%, Southern Miss 62%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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