Sam Houston Bearkats at Missouri State Bears
TV · ESPN2
At lock SHSU 22.17–28.75 MOST · 1.4 pts over 49.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
L. Locke · SHSU
QBA. McCaskill · SHSU
RBT. Burns Jr. · SHSU
WRH. Belin IV · MOST
QBR. Green Jr. · MOST
RBI. Myers · MOST
WR
At lock: projected SHSU 22.17–28.75 MOST
Model vs market
Gap: -1.8 margin, +1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SHSU vs MOST
The model
How this number was built
SHSU 22.17–28.75 MOST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMOST -16.9 vs SHSU -17.6 · pred margin +5.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.0 vs -6.2 · model MOST 30.3–23.5 SHSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to MOST
- RecordMOST 2-5 · SHSU 1-6
- Market priorBlended 67% toward MOST -6.5 / total 49.5
Season leaders
Landyn LockePass 147/236, 1653 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Alton McCaskillRush 55 CAR, 220 YDS, 1 TD
Tim Burns Jr.Rec 15 REC, 329 YDS, 3 TD
Henry Belin IVPass 73/108, 887 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT
Ramone Green Jr.Rush 57 CAR, 246 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah MyersRec 38 REC, 796 YDS, 7 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SHSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 20.1 | 24.4 |
| Total Yards | 328.3 | 367.6 |
| Yards Passing | 245.3 | 240.7 |
| Yards Rushing | 83.0 | 126.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 25.3 | 34.9 |
| Yards Allowed | 341.7 | 434.6 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 141.0 | 250.1 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 200.7 | 184.4 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sam Houston vs Missouri St prediction · Oct 27, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Sam Houston 22.2, Missouri St 28.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Missouri St 64%, Sam Houston 36%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day