NCAAFTue 6:00 PM CTHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Delaware Blue Hens at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

TV · CBSSN

Tue 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

WKU -1.5

51%

At lock DEL 26.97–28.81 WKU · WKU by 1.8 pts vs WKU -1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

N. Minicucci · DEL
QB
J. Silver · DEL
RB
S. Wilson · DEL
WR
R. Tisdale Jr. · WKU
QB
A. Allen · WKU
RB
J. Stafford Jr. · WKU
WR

Delaware Blue Hens

3-4 · W1

198 PF · 199 PA

26.97

Projected

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

3-4 · W2 · computer pick

149 PF · 214 PA

28.81

DEL 46%WKU 54%

At lock: projected DEL 26.97–28.81 WKU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

WKU -1.8

WKU -1.5

Total

55.8

55.5

Gap: +0.3 margin, +0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DEL vs WKU

The model

How this number was built

DEL 26.97–28.81 WKU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WKU -12.3 vs DEL -10.8 · pred margin +1.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.2 vs -0.7 · model WKU 29.4–26.9 DEL
Home field
+3.0 pts to WKU
Record
WKU 3-4 · DEL 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward WKU -1.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nick Minicucci
Pass 79/132, 1063 YDS, 10 TD, 4 INT
Jo Silver
Rush 71 CAR, 331 YDS, 2 TD
Sean Wilson
Rec 31 REC, 408 YDS, 3 TD

Rodney Tisdale Jr.
Pass 80/119, 857 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Ajay Allen
Rush 82 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD
Jonathan Stafford Jr.
Rec 41 REC, 369 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEL	WKU
Points Per Game	28.3	21.3
Total Yards	381.7	353.6
Yards Passing	268.0	217.6
Yards Rushing	113.7	136.0
Points Allowed Per Game	28.4	30.6
Yards Allowed	396.4	375.0
Pass Yards Allowed	270.3	190.9
Rush Yards Allowed	126.1	184.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Delaware vs Western KY prediction · Oct 27, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WKU -1.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Delaware 27.0, Western KY 28.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Western KY 54%, Delaware 46%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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