Missouri State Bears at Delaware Blue Hens
TV · ESPNU
MOST 24.27–27.55 DEL
Projected MOST 24.27–27.55 DEL
Model vs market
Gap: +0.8 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MOST vs DEL
The model
How this number was built
MOST 24.27–27.55 DEL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDEL -14.1 vs MOST -14.7 · pred margin +3.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.0 vs -2.6 · model DEL 29.5–25.2 MOST
- Home field+3.0 pts to DEL
- RecordDEL 2-4 · MOST 2-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward DEL -3 / total 51.5
Season leaders
Skyler LocklearPass 71/108, 788 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Ramone Green Jr.Rush 51 CAR, 227 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah MyersRec 27 REC, 554 YDS, 5 TD
Nick MinicucciPass 59/103, 838 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT
Jo SilverRush 58 CAR, 230 YDS, 1 TD
Sean WilsonRec 25 REC, 339 YDS, 3 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MOST | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 22.2 | 22.8 |
| Total Yards | 357.0 | 365.0 |
| Yards Passing | 224.7 | 271.0 |
| Yards Rushing | 132.3 | 94.0 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 30.5 | 26.8 |
| Yards Allowed | 426.7 | 390.7 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 250.2 | 259.2 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 176.5 | 131.5 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Missouri St vs Delaware prediction · Oct 20, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 51.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Missouri St 24.3, Delaware 27.6. Model win probability: Delaware 58%, Missouri St 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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