NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTWilliams Stadium (VA)

Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames

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Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

FIU +14

53%

At lock FIU 16.38–29.12 LIB · LIB by 12.7 pts vs FIU +14 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Kohl · FIU
QB
D. Lyons · FIU
RB
M. Anderson · FIU
WR
D. Purdie · LIB
QB
K. Davis · LIB
RB
M. Jackson · LIB
WR

Florida International Panthers

3-4 · L2 · computer pick

141 PF · 114 PA

16.38

Projected

Liberty Flames

6-1 · W6

221 PF · 98 PA

29.12

FIU 19%LIB 81%

At lock: projected FIU 16.38–29.12 LIB

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LIB -14.5

LIB -14.0

Total

45.5

Gap: +0.5 margin, +0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FIU vs LIB

The model

How this number was built

FIU 16.38–29.12 LIB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LIB +2.5 vs FIU -11.0 · pred margin +14.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.1 vs +1.7 · model LIB 27.9–17.7 FIU
Home field
+3.0 pts to LIB
Record
LIB 6-1 · FIU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LIB -14 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

JJ Kohl
Pass 131/227, 1637 YDS, 10 TD, 8 INT
Devonte Lyons
Rush 84 CAR, 383 YDS, 1 TD
Maguire Anderson
Rec 36 REC, 568 YDS, 4 TD

Deshawn Purdie
Pass 80/133, 1226 YDS, 9 TD
Kam Davis
Rush 83 CAR, 583 YDS, 5 TD
Makai Jackson
Rec 23 REC, 540 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FIU	LIB
Points Per Game	20.1	31.6
Total Yards	377.6	413.9
Yards Passing	250.7	192.0
Yards Rushing	126.9	221.9
Points Allowed Per Game	16.3	14.0
Yards Allowed	292.0	292.4
Pass Yards Allowed	170.9	177.1
Rush Yards Allowed	121.1	115.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FIU vs Liberty prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FIU +14, with a 53% model probability. The model projected FIU 16.4, Liberty 29.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Liberty 81%, FIU 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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