NCAAFWed 7:00 PM CTAggie Memorial Stadium

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies

TV · ESPN2

Wed 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

51%

At lock JXST 26.48–23.57 NMSU · 0.5 pts over 49.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Creel · JXST
QB
D. Johnson · JXST
WR
T. Hedden · NMSU
QB
J. Jones · NMSU
RB
T. King · NMSU
WR

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

5-2 · W4

191 PF · 159 PA

26.48

Projected

New Mexico State Aggies

3-4 · W1

172 PF · 178 PA

23.57

JXST 56%NMSU 44%

At lock: projected JXST 26.48–23.57 NMSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

JXST -1.5

JXST -3.0

Total

50.0

49.5

Gap: +1.5 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: JXST vs NMSU

The model

How this number was built

JXST 26.48–23.57 NMSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NMSU -12.8 vs JXST -8.8 · pred margin -2.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.7 vs +2.1 · model NMSU 24.2–26.9 JXST
Home field
+3.0 pts to NMSU
Record
NMSU 3-4 · JXST 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward JXST -3 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Caden Creel
Pass 129/192, 1637 YDS, 12 TD, 6 INT
Caden Creel
Rush 105 CAR, 500 YDS, 4 TD
Deondre Johnson
Rec 22 REC, 431 YDS, 3 TD

Trey Hedden
Pass 65/124, 906 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
James Jones
Rush 119 CAR, 777 YDS, 4 TD
TK King
Rec 23 REC, 307 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JXST	NMSU
Points Per Game	27.3	24.6
Total Yards	390.6	371.9
Yards Passing	240.4	220.4
Yards Rushing	150.1	151.4
Points Allowed Per Game	22.7	25.4
Yards Allowed	346.0	333.3
Pass Yards Allowed	189.6	224.1
Rush Yards Allowed	156.4	109.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Jax State vs New Mexico St prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Jax State 26.5, New Mexico St 23.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: New Mexico St 44%, Jax State 56%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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