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Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State Panthers

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Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

GAST -6.5

51%

At lock CCU 25.96–33.04 GAST · GAST by 7.1 pts vs GAST -6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Bailey · CCU
QB
D. Lee-Knicely · CCU
RB
C. Hinton · CCU
WR
C. Brown · GAST
QB
L. McCrary Jr. · GAST
RB
R. Dorsey · GAST
WR

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

2-5 · L1

183 PF · 181 PA

25.96

Projected

Georgia State Panthers

4-3 · L2 · computer pick

251 PF · 182 PA

33.04

CCU 33%GAST 67%

At lock: projected CCU 25.96–33.04 GAST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

GAST -7.8

GAST -6.5

Total

59.0

59.5

Gap: +1.3 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CCU vs GAST

The model

How this number was built

CCU 25.96–33.04 GAST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
GAST -7.5 vs CCU -12.2 · pred margin +6.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.4 vs -2.8 · model GAST 33.1–24.9 CCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to GAST
Record
GAST 4-3 · CCU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward GAST -6.5 / total 59.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Deuce Bailey
Pass 109/204, 1638 YDS, 16 TD, 4 INT
Dominic Lee-Knicely
Rush 80 CAR, 452 YDS, 3 TD
Colton Hinton
Rec 13 REC, 297 YDS, 4 TD

Cameran Brown
Pass 110/166, 1356 YDS, 14 TD, 5 INT
Lanear McCrary Jr.
Rush 82 CAR, 399 YDS, 4 TD
Rodshaun Dorsey
Rec 24 REC, 418 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CCU	GAST
Points Per Game	26.1	35.9
Total Yards	382.4	449.3
Yards Passing	234.9	244.0
Yards Rushing	147.6	205.3
Points Allowed Per Game	25.9	26.0
Yards Allowed	419.4	355.6
Pass Yards Allowed	220.7	206.3
Rush Yards Allowed	198.7	149.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Coastal vs Georgia St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GAST -6.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Coastal 26.0, Georgia St 33.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Georgia St 67%, Coastal 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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