App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles
TV · ESPN+
At lock APP 24.94–29.14 GASO · GASO by 4.2 pts vs APP +5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
M. Singleton · APP
QBJ. Lewis · APP
RBS. Pickett III · APP
WRM. Johnson · GASO
QBD. Mbadinga · GASO
RBA. Taylor · GASO
WR
At lock: projected APP 24.94–29.14 GASO
Model vs market
Gap: -1.2 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: APP vs GASO
The model
How this number was built
APP 24.94–29.14 GASO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGASO -4.9 vs APP -7.5 · pred margin +5.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.3 vs +1.4 · model GASO 27.4–25.8 APP
- Home field+3.0 pts to GASO
- RecordGASO 3-4 · APP 5-2
- Market priorBlended 67% toward GASO -5.5 / total 54.5
Season leaders
Malachi SingletonPass 139/209, 1700 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT
Jaquari LewisRush 83 CAR, 420 YDS, 8 TD
Sam Pickett IIIRec 32 REC, 474 YDS, 4 TD
Max JohnsonPass 154/232, 1601 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT
David MbadingaRush 39 CAR, 233 YDS
Alex TaylorRec 24 REC, 342 YDS, 3 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 30.1 | 24.4 |
| Total Yards | 413.7 | 397.3 |
| Yards Passing | 270.1 | 275.4 |
| Yards Rushing | 143.6 | 121.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 23.1 | 23.0 |
| Yards Allowed | 362.4 | 326.7 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 231.1 | 200.4 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 131.3 | 126.3 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
App State vs GA Southern prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is APP +5.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected App State 24.9, GA Southern 29.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: GA Southern 62%, App State 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day