NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTJohnson Hagood Stadium

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at The Citadel Bulldogs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CIT +19.5

59%

At lock TNTC 33.62–17.69 CIT · CIT by 3.6 pts vs CIT +19.5

Players

J. Leatherwood · TNTC
QB
M.J. Flowers · TNTC
Defenses
G. Nunez · TNTC
WR
Q. Hayes · CIT
QB
G. Garcia · CIT
Defenses
D. Abdullah · CIT
WR

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

6-1

33.62

Projected

The Citadel Bulldogs

2-5 · computer pick

17.69

TNTC 84%CIT 16%

At lock: projected TNTC 33.62–17.69 CIT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TNTC -0.7

TNTC -19.5

Total

54.7

50.5

Gap: +18.8 margin, +4.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TNTC vs CIT

The model

How this number was built

TNTC 33.62–17.69 CIT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs -1.1 · model CIT 27.0–27.7 TNTC
Home field
+3.0 pts to CIT
Record
CIT 2-5 · TNTC 6-1
Market prior
Blended 81% toward TNTC -19.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jax Leatherwood
Pass 168/249, 1859 YDS, 19 TD, 4 INT
M.J. Flowers
Rush 79 CAR, 397 YDS, 3 TD
Gabe Nunez
Rec 39 REC, 562 YDS, 3 TD

Quentin Hayes
Pass 31/64, 402 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Gavin Garcia
Rush 127 CAR, 625 YDS, 6 TD
Damir Abdullah
Rec 8 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TNTC	CIT
Points Per Game	34.0	19.3
Total Yards	382.1	310.6
Yards Passing	267.9	110.0
Yards Rushing	114.3	200.6
Points Allowed Per Game	22.7	34.6
Yards Allowed	336.1	365.3
Pass Yards Allowed	185.4	189.4
Rush Yards Allowed	150.7	175.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tennessee Tech vs The Citadel prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CIT +19.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Tennessee Tech 33.6, The Citadel 17.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: The Citadel 16%, Tennessee Tech 84%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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