NCAAFSat 1:30 PM CTE.J. Whitmire Stadium

Chattanooga Mocs at Western Carolina Catamounts

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

57%

At lock UTC 23.49–25.16 WCU · 3.1 pts over 45.5

Players

B. Alberson · UTC
QB
K. Lalin · UTC
Defenses
A. Schumann · UTC
WR
L. Thomas · WCU
QB
J. Perry · WCU
Defenses
A. Colombo · WCU
WR

Chattanooga Mocs

4-3

23.49

Projected

Western Carolina Catamounts

3-4

25.16

UTC 46%WCU 54%

At lock: projected UTC 23.49–25.16 WCU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UTC -1.0

WCU -3.0

Total

55.0

45.5

Gap: -4.0 margin, +9.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTC vs WCU

The model

How this number was built

UTC 23.49–25.16 WCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.0 vs -1.3 · model WCU 27.0–28.0 UTC
Home field
+3.0 pts to WCU
Record
WCU 3-4 · UTC 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward WCU -3 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Battle Alberson
Pass 51/105, 602 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
Kevin Lalin
Rush 134 CAR, 690 YDS, 6 TD
Ashton Schumann
Rec 23 REC, 354 YDS, 1 TD

Lex Thomas
Pass 153/241, 1693 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Josh Perry
Rush 92 CAR, 455 YDS, 5 TD
AJ Colombo
Rec 34 REC, 414 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTC	WCU
Points Per Game	20.0	31.6
Total Yards	274.1	418.6
Yards Passing	86.0	255.7
Yards Rushing	188.1	162.9
Points Allowed Per Game	12.6	31.4
Yards Allowed	259.4	448.7
Pass Yards Allowed	140.6	267.3
Rush Yards Allowed	118.9	181.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Chattanooga vs W Carolina prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Chattanooga 23.5, W Carolina 25.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: W Carolina 54%, Chattanooga 46%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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