NCAAFSat 5:00 PM CTHomer Bryce Stadium

SE Louisiana Lions at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

TV · ESPN+

Sat 5:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SELA +20.5

56%

At lock SELA 17.71–35.80 SFA · SELA by 2.4 pts vs SELA +20.5

Players

K. Lowe · SELA
QB
D. Jackson · SELA
Defenses
D. Joseph · SELA
WR
G. Rutherford · SFA
QB
S. Jones · SFA
Defenses
B. Mortimer · SFA
WR

SE Louisiana Lions

4-3 · computer pick

17.71

Projected

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

7-0

35.80

SELA 13%SFA 87%

At lock: projected SELA 17.71–35.80 SFA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SFA -7.8

SFA -20.5

Total

53.6

53.5

Gap: -12.7 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SELA vs SFA

The model

How this number was built

SELA 17.71–35.80 SFA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.0 vs -3.9 · model SFA 30.7–22.9 SELA
Home field
+3.0 pts to SFA
Record
SFA 7-0 · SELA 4-3
Market prior
Blended 81% toward SFA -20.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kyle Lowe
Pass 110/173, 1162 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Deantre Jackson
Rush 54 CAR, 303 YDS
Dkhai Joseph
Rec 32 REC, 325 YDS, 2 TD

Gavin Rutherford
Pass 124/183, 1721 YDS, 19 TD, 6 INT
Speedy Jones
Rush 58 CAR, 429 YDS, 2 TD
Bugs Mortimer
Rec 29 REC, 467 YDS, 7 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SELA	SFA
Points Per Game	28.4	40.9
Total Yards	341.4	489.4
Yards Passing	169.1	271.4
Yards Rushing	172.3	218.0
Points Allowed Per Game	28.3	13.0
Yards Allowed	397.3	334.7
Pass Yards Allowed	249.3	237.0
Rush Yards Allowed	148.0	97.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SE Louisiana vs SF Austin prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SELA +20.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected SE Louisiana 17.7, SF Austin 35.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: SF Austin 87%, SE Louisiana 13%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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