Marist Red Foxes at Drake Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
Model: MRST 24.54–27.52 DRKE
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1168612156
- Winner: Drake (60%)
- Spread: MRST +4.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MRST vs DRKE
The model
How this number was built
MRST 24.54–27.52 DRKE · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDRKE -0.3 off · MRST +0.0 off, shrunk 55%
- Home field+3.0 pts to DRKE
- RecordDRKE 2-5 · MRST 4-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward DRKE -3 / total 51.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRST | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| DRKE | 3 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 10:050–3
Griffin Kollhoff 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 5:377–3
Sonny Mannino 2 Yd Run (Luke Stenson Kick)
- TDQ2 14:547–9
Hank Foley 3 Yd pass from Riley Warzynski (Griffin Kollhoff PAT failed)
- TDQ2 13:067–16
Kyle Cottee 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kollhoff Kick)
- TDQ2 0:4914–16
Sonny Mannino 2 Yd Run (Luke Stenson Kick)
- FGQ3 2:4217–16
Luke Stenson 18 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:5924–16
Zach Garmont 57 Yd pass from Sonny Mannino (Luke Stenson Kick)
- TDQ4 8:3524–22
Mitchell January 23 Yd pass from Riley Warzynski (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 4:5827–22
Luke Stenson 37 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MRST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sonny Mannino #12 | 13/26 | 215 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Team | 13/26 | 215 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| MRST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I Isaiah Simmons #2 | 15 | 108 | 7.2 | 0 | 19 |
S Sonny Mannino #12 | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 2 | 12 |
J Jeremy DeCaro #26 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | 3 |
L Lincoln Cardillo #4 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 163 | 4.9 | 2 | 19 |
Receiving
| MRST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zach Garmont #5 | 7 | 156 | 22.3 | 1 | 57 |
 Marco Lainez III #10 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 13 |
J Jayden Taylor #14 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Reed Shumpert #15 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 11 |
| Team | 13 | 215 | 16.5 | 1 | 57 |
Defense
| MRST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jace Williamson #32 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
C Chase Hatton #21 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
K Kade Werner #29 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
W Wayne Adair #42 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Nate Furrow #54 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tyrell Powell #3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
C Chris Barnes #18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J James Kratochvil #59 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Matt Bonczek #44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R Reggie Bropleh Jr. #37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I Isaac Nkwantabisah-Asiedu #90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Trevion Adcox #20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Naheem Ridore #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
T Todd Woodring #53 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sonny Mannino #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Amare Minggia #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Dylan Gilmore #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jared Bernabei #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Dixon Charzuk #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Stiles Harper #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Blake Landry #47 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sean Coverdale #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jake Lisicki #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Joey Patierno #94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
B Braylen Ricks #98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
M Miles Harding #6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 72 | 50 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MRST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
W Wayne Adair #42 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 30 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MRST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jaylen Johnson #0 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 21 | 0 |
J Jeremy DeCaro #26 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
Marco Lainez III #10 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 21 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MRST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jeremy DeCaro #26 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| MRST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L Luke Stenson #46 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 37 | 3/3 | 9 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 37 | 3/3 | 9 |
Punting
| MRST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Ethan Yuska #45 | 3 | 86 | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Team | 3 | 86 | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRST | DRKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 27 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-10 | 8-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 2-4 |
| Total Yards | 378 | 410 |
| Passing | 215 | 269 |
| Comp/Att | 13/26 | 29/52 |
| Yards per pass | 8.3 | 5.2 |
| Rushing | 163 | 141 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Penalties | 6-61 | 7-55 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 28:56 | 31:04 |
MRST 24.54–27.52 DRKE
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.