NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTUniversity Stadium (GA)

Tarleton State Texans at West Georgia Wolves

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

WES +21.5

57%

At lock TAR 37.54–19.05 WES · WES by 3.0 pts vs WES +21.5

Players

K. Anderson · TAR
QB
T. Hines · TAR
Defenses
M. Willis · TAR
WR
C. Fitzgerald · WES
QB
J. Montgomery · WES
Defenses
D. Daniel · WES
WR

Tarleton State Texans

7-0

37.54

Projected

West Georgia Wolves

1-6 · computer pick

19.05

TAR 87%WES 13%

At lock: projected TAR 37.54–19.05 WES

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TAR -5.7

TAR -21.5

Total

52.7

57.5

Gap: +15.8 margin, -4.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TAR vs WES

The model

How this number was built

TAR 37.54–19.05 WES · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.4 vs +0.4 · model WES 23.5–29.2 TAR
Home field
+3.0 pts to WES
Record
WES 1-6 · TAR 7-0
Market prior
Blended 81% toward TAR -21.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kaden Anderson
Pass 135/210, 1972 YDS, 20 TD, 2 INT
Tylan Hines
Rush 87 CAR, 672 YDS, 4 TD
Marquis Willis
Rec 39 REC, 648 YDS, 6 TD

Colton Fitzgerald
Pass 120/197, 1478 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Justin Montgomery
Rush 56 CAR, 169 YDS, 1 TD
DK Daniel
Rec 24 REC, 312 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TAR	WES
Points Per Game	40.9	17.6
Total Yards	509.3	324.1
Yards Passing	297.7	260.6
Yards Rushing	211.6	63.6
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	31.3
Yards Allowed	420.7	358.6
Pass Yards Allowed	279.0	169.3
Rush Yards Allowed	141.7	189.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tarleton St vs West Georgia prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WES +21.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Tarleton St 37.5, West Georgia 19.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: West Georgia 13%, Tarleton St 87%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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