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San Diego Toreros at Dayton Flyers

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Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USD +6

52%

At lock USD 25.08–30.16 DAY · USD by 0.9 pts vs USD +6

Players

D. Nankil · USD
QB
A. Criter · USD
Defenses
E. Taylor · USD
WR
B. Schondelmyer · DAY
QB
L. Hansen · DAY
Defenses
M. Mussari · DAY
WR

San Diego Toreros

3-4 · computer pick

25.08

Projected

Dayton Flyers

5-1

30.16

USD 38%DAY 62%

At lock: projected USD 25.08–30.16 DAY

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DAY -3.1

DAY -6.0

Total

54.7

55.5

Gap: -2.9 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USD vs DAY

The model

How this number was built

USD 25.08–30.16 DAY · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
DAY +0.6 off · USD -0.1 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to DAY
Record
DAY 5-1 · USD 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DAY -6 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dom Nankil
Pass 147/233, 1645 YDS, 9 TD, 7 INT
Adam Criter
Rush 114 CAR, 572 YDS, 5 TD
Elijah Taylor
Rec 41 REC, 534 YDS, 1 TD

Bryce Schondelmyer
Pass 128/196, 1236 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
Luke Hansen
Rush 72 CAR, 351 YDS, 4 TD
Michael Mussari
Rec 34 REC, 447 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USD	DAY
Points Per Game	28.6	31.2
Total Yards	406.4	366.8
Yards Passing	238.3	216.0
Yards Rushing	168.1	150.8
Points Allowed Per Game	37.3	18.0
Yards Allowed	435.1	337.8
Pass Yards Allowed	258.1	238.5
Rush Yards Allowed	177.0	99.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

San Diego vs Dayton prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USD +6, with a 52% model probability. The model projected San Diego 25.1, Dayton 30.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dayton 62%, San Diego 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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