NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTDrake Stadium (IA)

Butler Bulldogs at Drake Bulldogs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

DRKE +3

55%

At lock BTLR 27.33–26.26 DRKE · DRKE by 1.9 pts vs DRKE +3

Players

G. Passini · BTLR
QB
N. Munson · BTLR
WR
R. Warzynski · DRKE
QB
K. Clark · DRKE
Defenses
W. Nofsinger · DRKE
WR

Butler Bulldogs

5-2

27.33

Projected

Drake Bulldogs

2-5 · computer pick

26.26

BTLR 53%DRKE 47%

At lock: projected BTLR 27.33–26.26 DRKE

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DRKE -2.8

BTLR -3.0

Total

53.8

53.5

Gap: +5.8 margin, +0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BTLR vs DRKE

The model

How this number was built

BTLR 27.33–26.26 DRKE · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
DRKE -0.4 off · BTLR +0.4 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to DRKE
Record
DRKE 2-5 · BTLR 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BTLR -3 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabe Passini
Pass 89/144, 1048 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT
Gabe Passini
Rush 94 CAR, 444 YDS, 5 TD
Nick Munson
Rec 26 REC, 386 YDS, 7 TD

Riley Warzynski
Pass 201/339, 2279 YDS, 14 TD, 10 INT
Kavaughn Clark
Rush 37 CAR, 173 YDS, 2 TD
Willis Nofsinger
Rec 38 REC, 569 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BTLR	DRKE
Points Per Game	33.3	25.0
Total Yards	364.3	429.0
Yards Passing	159.1	336.4
Yards Rushing	205.1	92.6
Points Allowed Per Game	21.6	34.4
Yards Allowed	345.7	396.1
Pass Yards Allowed	254.6	252.6
Rush Yards Allowed	91.1	143.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Butler vs Drake prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DRKE +3, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Butler 27.3, Drake 26.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Drake 47%, Butler 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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