NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTEstes Stadium

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Central Arkansas Bears

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

56%

At lock RGV 22.82–25.38 CARK · 2.7 pts over 45.5

Players

A. Jakobsohn · RGV
QB
B. Carroll · RGV
Defenses
K. Lee · RGV
WR
D. Omolo · CARK
QB
J. Washington · CARK
Defenses
D. Anderson · CARK
WR

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

3-4

22.82

Projected

Central Arkansas Bears

2-5

25.38

RGV 44%CARK 56%

At lock: projected RGV 22.82–25.38 CARK

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CARK -0.6

CARK -3.5

Total

53.7

45.5

Gap: -2.9 margin, +8.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RGV vs CARK

The model

How this number was built

RGV 22.82–25.38 CARK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.3 vs -1.6 · model CARK 27.2–26.5 RGV
Home field
+3.0 pts to CARK
Record
CARK 2-5 · RGV 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward CARK -3.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Aidan Jakobsohn
Pass 100/179, 1237 YDS, 8 TD, 8 INT
Brennan Carroll
Rush 55 CAR, 334 YDS, 1 TD
Kyran Lee
Rec 36 REC, 507 YDS, 4 TD

Donovyn Omolo
Pass 114/182, 1202 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT
Jalen Washington
Rush 87 CAR, 552 YDS, 6 TD
Dakarai Anderson
Rec 33 REC, 302 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RGV	CARK
Points Per Game	23.0	24.9
Total Yards	402.6	379.4
Yards Passing	256.9	173.9
Yards Rushing	145.7	205.6
Points Allowed Per Game	21.4	30.9
Yards Allowed	326.3	362.9
Pass Yards Allowed	193.4	222.3
Rush Yards Allowed	132.9	140.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UT Rio Grande vs C Arkansas prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected UT Rio Grande 22.8, C Arkansas 25.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: C Arkansas 56%, UT Rio Grande 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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