NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTUC Davis Health Stadium

Northern Colorado Bears at UC Davis Aggies

TV · ESPN+

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UNCO +9.5

56%

At lock UNCO 25.21–32.44 UCD · UNCO by 2.3 pts vs UNCO +9.5

Players

K. Lueth · UNCO
QB
J. Guin · UNCO
Defenses
T. Olsen · UNCO
WR
T. Cleeland · UCD
QB
J. Fisher · UCD
Defenses
S. Gbatu Jr. · UCD
WR

Northern Colorado Bears

3-5 · computer pick

25.21

Projected

UC Davis Aggies

4-3

32.44

UNCO 33%UCD 67%

At lock: projected UNCO 25.21–32.44 UCD

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UNCO -2.4

UCD -9.5

Total

54.1

58.5

Gap: -11.9 margin, -4.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UNCO vs UCD

The model

How this number was built

UNCO 25.21–32.44 UCD · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.5 vs -0.8 · model UCD 25.8–28.2 UNCO
Home field
+3.0 pts to UCD
Record
UCD 4-3 · UNCO 3-5
Market prior
Blended 81% toward UCD -9.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kenny Lueth
Pass 64/106, 752 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
Justin Guin
Rush 96 CAR, 516 YDS, 4 TD
Trey Olsen
Rec 29 REC, 502 YDS, 3 TD

Treynor Cleeland
Pass 134/230, 1715 YDS, 14 TD, 6 INT
Jordan Fisher
Rush 107 CAR, 750 YDS, 8 TD
Samuel Gbatu Jr.
Rec 51 REC, 713 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UNCO	UCD
Points Per Game	23.6	31.9
Total Yards	389.0	444.1
Yards Passing	205.4	276.3
Yards Rushing	183.6	167.9
Points Allowed Per Game	25.5	34.6
Yards Allowed	391.8	454.3
Pass Yards Allowed	248.0	271.9
Rush Yards Allowed	143.8	182.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

N Colorado vs UC Davis prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNCO +9.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected N Colorado 25.2, UC Davis 32.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: UC Davis 67%, N Colorado 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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