NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTMustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium

Utah Tech Trailblazers at Cal Poly Mustangs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UTU +17.5

56%

At lock UTU 19.86–34.79 CP · UTU by 2.6 pts vs UTU +17.5

Players

B. Barben · UTU
QB
A. Chatman · UTU
Defenses
M. Williams · UTU
WR
A. Grigsby Jr. · CP
QB
J. Green · CP
Defenses
T. McCoy · CP
WR

Utah Tech Trailblazers

0-7 · computer pick

19.86

Projected

Cal Poly Mustangs

4-4

34.79

UTU 18%CP 82%

At lock: projected UTU 19.86–34.79 CP

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CP -4.0

CP -17.5

Total

55.3

54.5

Gap: -13.5 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTU vs CP

The model

How this number was built

UTU 19.86–34.79 CP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs -3.0 · model CP 29.6–25.6 UTU
Home field
+3.0 pts to CP
Record
CP 4-4 · UTU 0-7
Market prior
Blended 81% toward CP -17.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bronson Barben
Pass 111/209, 1253 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT
Ace Chatman
Rush 96 CAR, 409 YDS, 5 TD
Mike Williams
Rec 14 REC, 318 YDS, 1 TD

Anthony Grigsby Jr.
Pass 153/242, 1857 YDS, 16 TD, 6 INT
Jaden Green
Rush 148 CAR, 894 YDS, 6 TD
Tayvion McCoy
Rec 48 REC, 696 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTU	CP
Points Per Game	14.9	28.1
Total Yards	338.3	405.4
Yards Passing	234.9	233.4
Yards Rushing	103.4	172.0
Points Allowed Per Game	42.9	30.0
Yards Allowed	444.0	418.3
Pass Yards Allowed	219.0	241.4
Rush Yards Allowed	225.0	176.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Utah Tech vs Cal Poly prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UTU +17.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Utah Tech 19.9, Cal Poly 34.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cal Poly 82%, Utah Tech 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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