NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTVillanova Stadium

Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Villanova Wildcats

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

VILL +6.5

54%

At lock LEH 27.62–22.90 VILL · VILL by 1.8 pts vs VILL +6.5

Players

D. Morgan · LEH
QB
L. Yoder · LEH
Defenses
A. Feaster · LEH
WR
P. McQuaide · VILL
QB
J. Mace · VILL
Defenses
B. Reed · VILL
WR

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

6-1

27.62

Projected

Villanova Wildcats

3-4 · computer pick

22.90

LEH 61%VILL 39%

At lock: projected LEH 27.62–22.90 VILL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

VILL -2.8

LEH -6.5

Total

54.9

49.5

Gap: +9.3 margin, +5.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LEH vs VILL

The model

How this number was built

LEH 27.62–22.90 VILL · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
VILL -0.1 off · LEH +0.7 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to VILL
Record
VILL 3-4 · LEH 6-1
Market prior
Blended 81% toward LEH -6.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Derek Morgan
Pass 45/78, 514 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT
Luke Yoder
Rush 146 CAR, 956 YDS, 13 TD
Anthony Feaster
Rec 14 REC, 276 YDS, 3 TD

Pat McQuaide
Pass 119/183, 1570 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT
Ja'briel Mace
Rush 83 CAR, 468 YDS, 5 TD
Braden Reed
Rec 34 REC, 433 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LEH	VILL
Points Per Game	34.3	25.1
Total Yards	392.0	368.0
Yards Passing	140.9	226.0
Yards Rushing	251.1	142.0
Points Allowed Per Game	17.0	29.9
Yards Allowed	332.1	395.7
Pass Yards Allowed	229.9	238.7
Rush Yards Allowed	102.3	157.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lehigh vs Villanova prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is VILL +6.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Lehigh 27.6, Villanova 22.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Villanova 39%, Lehigh 61%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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