NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTWalter J. Zable Stadium

Georgetown Hoyas at William & Mary Tribe

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 47.5

54%

At lock GTWN 22.12–27.15 W&M · 1.8 pts over 47.5

Players

J. Johnson · GTWN
QB
C. Ash · GTWN
Defenses
H. Mahasin · GTWN
WR
W. Watkins · W&M
QB
A. King · W&M
Defenses
K. Johnson · W&M
WR

Georgetown Hoyas

2-4

22.12

Projected

William & Mary Tribe

3-4

27.15

GTWN 38%W&M 62%

At lock: projected GTWN 22.12–27.15 W&M

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

W&M -3.0

W&M -6.0

Total

52.9

47.5

Gap: -3.0 margin, +5.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GTWN vs W&M

The model

How this number was built

GTWN 22.12–27.15 W&M · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
W&M -0.1 off · GTWN -0.3 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to W&M
Record
W&M 3-4 · GTWN 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward W&M -6 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jack Johnson
Pass 44/78, 510 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Clay Ash
Rush 84 CAR, 435 YDS, 3 TD
Hassan Mahasin
Rec 25 REC, 280 YDS, 2 TD

Winston Watkins
Pass 94/157, 1252 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
Andrew King
Rush 74 CAR, 379 YDS, 3 TD
Khylil Johnson
Rec 17 REC, 393 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GTWN	W&M
Points Per Game	19.0	20.3
Total Yards	312.3	283.9
Yards Passing	170.2	189.1
Yards Rushing	142.2	94.7
Points Allowed Per Game	25.8	37.1
Yards Allowed	411.3	473.4
Pass Yards Allowed	245.7	202.6
Rush Yards Allowed	165.7	270.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Georgetown vs William & Mary prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 47.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Georgetown 22.1, William & Mary 27.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: William & Mary 62%, Georgetown 38%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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