NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTMoglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field

Lafayette Leopards at Fordham Rams

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 50.5

52%

At lock LAF 26.46–24.96 FOR · 0.9 pts over 50.5

Players

D. Lipovski · LAF
QB
J. Henley · LAF
Defenses
M. Kuehner · LAF
WR
G. Smith · FOR
QB
J. James · FOR
Defenses
R. Gonzalez II · FOR
WR

Lafayette Leopards

2-4

26.46

Projected

Fordham Rams

2-6

24.96

LAF 54%FOR 46%

At lock: projected LAF 26.46–24.96 FOR

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FOR -0.6

LAF -2.5

Total

53.3

50.5

Gap: +3.1 margin, +2.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAF vs FOR

The model

How this number was built

LAF 26.46–24.96 FOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.4 vs -4.6 · model FOR 27.0–26.4 LAF
Home field
+3.0 pts to FOR
Record
FOR 2-6 · LAF 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LAF -2.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Daniel Lipovski
Pass 70/147, 780 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT
Jakyre Henley
Rush 79 CAR, 500 YDS, 5 TD
Mason Kuehner
Rec 33 REC, 465 YDS, 3 TD

Gunnar Smith
Pass 107/208, 967 YDS, 6 TD, 11 INT
Jamell James
Rush 78 CAR, 500 YDS, 5 TD
Ricky Gonzalez II
Rec 25 REC, 287 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAF	FOR
Points Per Game	22.5	15.8
Total Yards	321.2	277.1
Yards Passing	176.8	123.8
Yards Rushing	144.3	153.4
Points Allowed Per Game	31.7	31.4
Yards Allowed	438.2	395.4
Pass Yards Allowed	269.5	202.1
Rush Yards Allowed	168.7	193.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lafayette vs Fordham prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Lafayette 26.5, Fordham 25.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Fordham 46%, Lafayette 54%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day