NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTJoe Walton Stadium

Mercyhurst Lakers at Robert Morris Colonials

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 48.5

56%

At lock MERC 22.01–29.14 RMU · 2.7 pts over 48.5

Players

A. Gevaudan · MERC
QB
J. Gamble · MERC
Defenses
D. Evans · MERC
WR
C. Haggard · RMU
QB
X. Goulbourne · RMU
Defenses
J. Carter · RMU
WR

Mercyhurst Lakers

1-6

22.01

Projected

Robert Morris Colonials

3-4

29.14

MERC 33%RMU 67%

At lock: projected MERC 22.01–29.14 RMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

RMU -10.4

RMU -5.5

Total

56.5

48.5

Gap: +4.9 margin, +8.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MERC vs RMU

The model

How this number was built

MERC 22.01–29.14 RMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.8 vs -8.4 · model RMU 33.5–23.0 MERC
Home field
+3.0 pts to RMU
Record
RMU 3-4 · MERC 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward RMU -5.5 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alex Gevaudan
Pass 114/202, 1356 YDS, 12 TD, 7 INT
Jameir Gamble
Rush 69 CAR, 310 YDS, 2 TD
Dylan Evans
Rec 27 REC, 416 YDS, 5 TD

Carson Haggard
Pass 123/215, 1690 YDS, 16 TD, 5 INT
Xavier Goulbourne
Rush 41 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Jaqai Carter
Rec 35 REC, 509 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MERC	RMU
Points Per Game	21.6	24.3
Total Yards	290.6	325.1
Yards Passing	216.1	245.4
Yards Rushing	74.4	79.7
Points Allowed Per Game	43.7	25.3
Yards Allowed	466.7	354.0
Pass Yards Allowed	239.3	183.9
Rush Yards Allowed	227.4	170.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mercyhurst vs Robert Morris prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 48.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Mercyhurst 22.0, Robert Morris 29.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Robert Morris 67%, Mercyhurst 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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