NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTSaluki Stadium

Northern Iowa Panthers at Southern Illinois Salukis

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SIU -3

52%

At lock UNI 24.68–28.29 SIU · SIU by 0.6 pts vs SIU -3

Players

J. Dailey · UNI
QB
C. Collins · UNI
Defenses
J. Ellis-Lahey · UNI
WR
D. Williams · SIU
QB
C. Chapman · SIU
Defenses
K. Thomas · SIU
WR

Northern Iowa Panthers

3-3

24.68

Projected

Southern Illinois Salukis

3-5 · computer pick

28.29

UNI 40%SIU 60%

At lock: projected UNI 24.68–28.29 SIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SIU -4.9

SIU -3.5

Total

53.9

52.5

Gap: +1.4 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UNI vs SIU

The model

How this number was built

UNI 24.68–28.29 SIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs -3.7 · model SIU 29.4–24.5 UNI
Home field
+3.0 pts to SIU
Record
SIU 3-5 · UNI 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SIU -3.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jaxon Dailey
Pass 101/165, 1236 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT
Christian Collins
Rush 44 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
Jaiden Ellis-Lahey
Rec 13 REC, 192 YDS

DJ Williams
Pass 109/192, 1337 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT
Chandler Chapman
Rush 115 CAR, 532 YDS
Kyle Thomas
Rec 35 REC, 552 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UNI	SIU
Points Per Game	25.7	22.9
Total Yards	313.2	351.9
Yards Passing	207.8	214.6
Yards Rushing	105.3	137.3
Points Allowed Per Game	29.3	27.5
Yards Allowed	415.5	364.5
Pass Yards Allowed	236.7	212.3
Rush Yards Allowed	178.8	152.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Northern Iowa vs S Illinois prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SIU -3, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Northern Iowa 24.7, S Illinois 28.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: S Illinois 60%, Northern Iowa 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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