NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTHancock Stadium

Indiana State Sycamores at Illinois State Redbirds

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

INST +22.5

57%

At lock INST 18.62–38.34 ILST · INST by 2.8 pts vs INST +22.5

Players

B. Allen · INST
QB
A. Ball · INST
Defenses
J. Reed · INST
WR
G. Roy · ILST
QB
V. Dawson · ILST
Defenses
D. Lord · ILST
WR

Indiana State Sycamores

2-5 · computer pick

18.62

Projected

Illinois State Redbirds

5-2

38.34

INST 11%ILST 89%

At lock: projected INST 18.62–38.34 ILST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ILST -7.9

ILST -22.5

Total

54.7

57.5

Gap: -14.6 margin, -2.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: INST vs ILST

The model

How this number was built

INST 18.62–38.34 ILST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.1 vs -4.1 · model ILST 31.3–23.4 INST
Home field
+3.0 pts to ILST
Record
ILST 5-2 · INST 2-5
Market prior
Blended 81% toward ILST -22.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Brady Allen
Pass 66/108, 1017 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT
Aaron Ball
Rush 63 CAR, 384 YDS, 4 TD
Jayden Reed
Rec 30 REC, 460 YDS, 4 TD

Gage Roy
Pass 91/136, 862 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT
Victor Dawson
Rush 83 CAR, 356 YDS, 5 TD
Dylan Lord
Rec 41 REC, 427 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	INST	ILST
Points Per Game	27.7	37.7
Total Yards	382.6	412.4
Yards Passing	263.9	226.1
Yards Rushing	118.7	186.3
Points Allowed Per Game	37.3	17.1
Yards Allowed	454.3	286.6
Pass Yards Allowed	307.3	178.7
Rush Yards Allowed	147.0	107.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Indiana St vs Illinois St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is INST +22.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Indiana St 18.6, Illinois St 38.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Illinois St 89%, Indiana St 11%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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