NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTHarvard Stadium

Princeton Tigers at Harvard Crimson

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 39.5

56%

At lock PRIN 16.68–25.84 HARV · 3.0 pts over 39.5

Players

W. Becker · PRIN
QB
K. Honda · PRIN
Defenses
J. Smith · PRIN
WR
C. Smith · HARV
QB
X. Bascon · HARV
Defenses
N. Bailey · HARV
WR

Princeton Tigers

4-1

16.68

Projected

Harvard Crimson

5-0

25.84

PRIN 29%HARV 71%

At lock: projected PRIN 16.68–25.84 HARV

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

HARV -3.1

HARV -10.5

Total

56.4

39.5

Gap: -7.4 margin, +16.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PRIN vs HARV

The model

How this number was built

PRIN 16.68–25.84 HARV · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
HARV +0.9 off · PRIN +0.5 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+3.0 pts to HARV
Record
HARV 5-0 · PRIN 4-1
Market prior
Blended 82% toward HARV -10.5 / total 39.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Wyatt Becker
Pass 41/83, 557 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Kai Honda
Rush 84 CAR, 492 YDS, 8 TD
Josh Smith
Rec 11 REC, 203 YDS, 2 TD

Charlie Smith
Pass 114/160, 1223 YDS, 10 TD, 4 INT
Xaviah Bascon
Rush 59 CAR, 225 YDS, 2 TD
Nate Bailey
Rec 39 REC, 385 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PRIN	HARV
Points Per Game	23.0	27.2
Total Yards	344.4	373.8
Yards Passing	189.6	245.2
Yards Rushing	154.8	128.6
Points Allowed Per Game	10.2	14.0
Yards Allowed	337.4	296.8
Pass Yards Allowed	227.0	164.8
Rush Yards Allowed	110.4	132.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Princeton vs Harvard prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 39.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Princeton 16.7, Harvard 25.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Harvard 71%, Princeton 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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