NCAAFSat 12:30 PM CTLawrence A. Wien Stadium

Dartmouth Big Green at Columbia Lions

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

56%

At lock DART 24.19–24.17 COLU · 2.9 pts over 45.5

Players

G. Saunier · DART
QB
M. Craddock · DART
Defenses
K. Fisher · DART
WR
C. Goodwin · COLU
QB
G. Johnson · COLU
Defenses
B. Coleman · COLU
WR

Dartmouth Big Green

2-3

24.19

Projected

Columbia Lions

4-1

24.17

DART 50%COLU 50%

At lock: projected DART 24.19–24.17 COLU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

COLU -3.1

DART -1.5

Total

54.4

45.5

Gap: +4.6 margin, +8.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DART vs COLU

The model

How this number was built

DART 24.19–24.17 COLU · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
COLU +0.5 off · DART -0.2 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+3.0 pts to COLU
Record
COLU 4-1 · DART 2-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DART -1.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Grayson Saunier
Pass 55/103, 779 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
Myles Craddock
Rush 88 CAR, 375 YDS, 3 TD
Ky'Dric Fisher
Rec 15 REC, 266 YDS, 3 TD

Chase Goodwin
Pass 122/212, 1489 YDS, 11 TD, 6 INT
Griffin Johnson
Rush 104 CAR, 486 YDS, 3 TD
Bryce Coleman
Rec 35 REC, 453 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DART	COLU
Points Per Game	19.2	27.2
Total Yards	307.4	420.4
Yards Passing	176.0	298.2
Yards Rushing	131.4	122.2
Points Allowed Per Game	22.8	28.2
Yards Allowed	404.8	369.4
Pass Yards Allowed	219.8	218.2
Rush Yards Allowed	185.0	151.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Dartmouth vs Columbia prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Dartmouth 24.2, Columbia 24.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Columbia 50%, Dartmouth 50%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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